AI Block: Forecast Probability — what it is and how to use it in trading
Definition
Forecast Probability (forecast.probability) is an AI block that returns the model's numeric confidence in its own direction forecast, as a percentage from 0 to 100. Typically used alongside forecast.direction as a threshold to filter out weak signals.
How it works in the builder
A number operand with no hard-enforced bound inside the builder itself (the 0-100 range is stated as a field hint, not a system-level constraint). The value is read from the same precomputed cache as the other AI blocks and, like them, is always false in backtest (listed in disabled_blocks).
What it looks like on the chart
Drawn as a radial percentage arc, swept clockwise starting at the 12 o'clock position — a dial-style visual for confidence.
Typical use
Typical condition: forecast.probability > 70 as an "only enter on high AI confidence" filter, paired with forecast.direction supplying the actual direction. Available only in LIVE strategies and only on the Pro plan.
Common pitfalls
A high stated model confidence is not the same as a guaranteed outcome — it's a probabilistic estimate, not a fact. Setting the threshold too high (e.g. > 90) can make it fire almost never, leaving the strategy without signals for long stretches.
This block is available in the strategy builder
137 no-code blocks — build an entry condition with this term and test it on history
Historical results do not guarantee future ones. The service is an informational and analytical tool, not an individual investment recommendation; trades are not executed.